A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
